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The aspirations of China and Europe to weaken the hegemony of the US dollar as the chosen global currency are tenuous as the latest global poll showed that the dollar accounts for 88 of all foreign exchange transactions a figure that has maintained its highest level for 18 yearsIn a report published by the American National Interest magazine the writer David Oren said that the appreciation of the dollar gives the US administration an unparalleled ability to practice coercion through the imposition of economic sanctionsThe author added that Stephen Kirchner of the Center for United States Studies released a new report saying that the dominant US dollar role reflects the depth of US capital markets and the strength of American institutions and this hegemony is likely to be long-termHowever the report warned that excessive use of economic sanctions would lead the affected countries to develop solutionsThe survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements every three years for foreign exchange trading showed that the share of the US dollar fell to 849 at the beginning of the decade but it has made progress since then compared to both the euro and the yenThe writer explained that the euro accounted for 323 of foreign exchange transactions this year registering a decrease from 39 in the 2010 survey compared to a decline in the yen’s share from 19 to 168In contrast only 43 of global foreign exchange deals are made with the adoption of the Chinese renminbi much less than 68 using the Australian dollarThe dominance of the dollarThe writer indicated that the foreign exchange market that exceeds 66 trillion US dollars a day represents only one dimension of the US dollar’s hegemony as it represents 63 of outstanding debt securities and 40 of financial transactions across bordersIn addition the US dollar is used as a currency for billing more than three times the number of global exports that America shipped itself and generally 70 of countries peg their currencies to the US dollarThe US dollar is the preferred currency of the world’s central banks which it uses in 62 of its foreign exchange reserves although Kirchner argues that its advantage as a reserve currency has little impact on the use of the dollar everywhere in global trade but rather a reflection of the depth and liquidity of capital markets American and economic and political institutions supporting itThe author stated that when the euro was formed in 1999 many economists expected it to compete with the US dollar and even replace itFred Bergstein the former head of the international economy at the US Treasury expected the euro to match the US dollar within five to ten yearsThe Chinese central bank has been pursuing a strategy to internationalize the renminbi since 2006 indicating that this will enhance China’s international standing and lead it to a strength The Renminbi International Monetary Fund was also included in the basket of currencies used to determine the value of Special Drawing Rights in 2016However Kirchner argues that both the eurozone and China demonstrate that volume alone will not provide international currency statusWill the euro displace the dollarThe writer quotes Kirchner who says that only well-developed capital markets – backed by sound political institutions that have relatively sound monetary and fiscal policy property rights and the rule of law – can provide the foundations for a widely needed currency outside their bordersThe writer added that both the euro area and China suffer from chronic political and economic institutions that are resistant to reform and that the possibility of the euro or the renminbi displacing the dollar significantly in the global economy in the medium term is almost non-existentThe writer explained by Kirchner that the euro was a source of economic weakness and not strength for member economies by limiting the scope of the exchange rate adjustment to absorb economic shocksGlobal investors do not view the euro-denominated assets as a safe haven in times of hardship given that the monetary union is not backed by any common banking strategy or budgetBetween 2012 and 2019 the euro’s share of global payments decreased from 44 to 34 while the European Central Bank’s measurement of its international role shows that it has been declining since 2006 and that it is no longer greater at present than it was when it was created twenty years agoAn indispensable US dollar in global transactions gives Washington powerful leverage and US economic sanctions can prevent companies and individuals from accessing the US payments system to settle transactions in US dollarsThe report said that non-American banks depend on their relations with American banks and their access to the basic structure of the US dollar payment system that the United States regulates to effect international transactions on behalf of its clientsRussia Iran Venezuela and North Korea have been subjected to sanctions whose implementation has been largely effective through the role of the US dollar in the global economyNevertheless the economic aggression generates repulsions For example Europe is moving to price its oil imports in euros to facilitate ongoing purchases from RussiaUltimately the report said if the US government is to misuse the role of the dollar as an instrument of international economic coercion this may be enhanced by developing alternative non-US dollar payment mechanismsSource: American Press |
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